A couple months ago, the Rode Duivels finally made good on their prodigious talent, beating Austria in convincing fashion, away from home. After a relatively easy victory against Azerbaijan, anticipation began to build towards the crucial home encounter against Guus Hiddink's Turkey. Tickets sold like hot cakes for this match (something that hasn't happened in Belgium for a long time). If Belgium wins, second place looks likely; a draw or loss gives Turkey the firm advantage. It's a must-win, without a shadow of a doubt, so tensions will be running high. In truth, the Turks are a big step up from the Austrians and Azeris. Apart from Marouane Fellaini Moussa Dembele and Romelu Lukaku, the squad is pretty much full strength. Turkey, however, will be missing the German footballer of the year, Nuri Sahin and Hamit Altintop. That limits their creativity to some extent, but the excellent Arda Turan should be able to pick up the slack.
Going on early reports, it seems safe to say that Mignolet, Alderweireld, Kompany, Van Buyten, Vertonghen, Simons, Defour, Witsel, Hazard and Chadli will start the match barring any unforseen injury. That likely means Thomas Vermaelen, who just came back from injury, will miss out. That's unfortunate for the captian of this squad, but it would be hard to displace Vertonghen at left-back, as he has been quite good there for the last few internationals. Many in Belgium will want to see Vermaelen in Van Buyten's centre back position, which is fair, given Van Buyten's track record, but Leekens has remained steadfastly confident in the Bayern man. At present, one of Alderweireld or Ciman will likely start at right-back. Leekens will probably give Alderweireld the spot, as Ciman has been on the bench for Standard Liege lately. Whatever the case, it's going to be an important decision, as the left flank is where Arda torments his opponents. If the defense does turn out as predicted, the wide defensive positions will be taken by centre backs, likely meaning solid defence but little attacking support from the fullbacks. That may hamper creativity, but it should give the wingers a little more leeway when it comes to tracking back.
The midfield is pretty much a given. Defour has had a couple of injuries in the past few months, but he should be healthy enough to play. If Fellaini was around, this would probably give Leekens more of a headache, but he's still recovering from an injury sustained with Everton. Simons is an excellent holding midfielder and Witsel was outstanding in his last games with Belgium, so don't expect any surprises there. It's a little disappointing not to see a guy like Radja Nainggolan get a selection after a great season in the Serie A, but it is good to see David Hubert, Genk's captain, get a callup.
The attack is where the picture gets a little hazy. While Lukaku was probable to start, he got injured at the last minute. So now it's between Jelle Vossen, Bjorn Vleminckx and Marvin Ogunjimi. Vossen is more crafty and technically skilled than either Vleminckx 0r Ogunjimi. He also doesn't hesitate to draw deep and get involved with the midfield play, and the lumbering Turkish central defenders may find that difficult to deal with. Vleminckx is probably the best finisher of the three, while Ogunjimi is the strongest and quickest. But given Vossen's attributes and his earlier performances with the Duivels, I'm picking him to start. With the absence of Dembele, Leekens has little choice other than to start Eden Hazard on the right flank. If he can replicate the form he's shown with Lille, the Turkish left-back (the young Ismail Koybasi) could be in for a long night. On the left side, Nacer Chadli will get the nod over Dries Mertens and Kevin De Bruyne (even though they both finished the season stronger than him). But Chadli is probably the most suited to a physical game, and since the diminutive Hazard will already be on the right, Leekens may feel that Chadli's strength and height will come handy.
So here's my predicted lineup:
----------------------------------Mignolet------------------------------------
Alderweireld----------Kompany-----------Van Buyten---------------Vertonghen
-------------------Defour-----------------------------Simons--------------------
------------------------------------Witsel----------------------------------------
Hazard-------------------------------------------------------------------Chadli
------------------------------------Vossen--------------------------------------
As always, international fixtures are difficult to predict, especially in this case, where both teams are quite evenly matched. But I think Belgium's momentum and crowd support will propel them to a hard-fought victory. I'm expecting Witsel and Kompany to shine, and Hazard to get an assist. 2-1 to Belgium. Yeah I know, I probably jinxed it.
Enjoy the match! (kickoff is at 8:45 pm, Brussels time)
