Match Preview: Belgium-Germany

And so it begins. The much anticipated start of Belgium's Euro 2012 qualifying campaign. After so much losing and misery, it's high time for some performance on the field. And what a way to kick it off; a young German team fresh off a brilliant World Cup run is Belgium's first opponent. Missing some key players due to injury (Michael Ballack, Jerome Boateng and Arne Friederich), Die Mannschaft is still a force to be reckoned with. Awaiting them is a Belgian side, likewise without several important players like Jonathan Legear, Jelle Van Damme, Nicholas Lombaerts and Mehdi Carcela, who opted to play for Morroco instead. The venue will be a sold-out Heysel Stadium in Brussels, seating 50,000 supporters.

From what I have been hearing from different sources, Belgium will lineup with a very defensive 4-3-3 formation. The following players are expected to start:

-------------------------------Bailly----------------------------

Alderweireld-------Van Buyten------Kompany-------Vermaelen

----------------Simons-----------------Vertonghen-------------

-------------------------------Fellaini---------------------------

----------Dembele--------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------Hazard----------

----------------------------Lukaku---------------------------

Germany is likely to play a 4-2-3-1, with particular emphasis on the attack. Here's how we can expect them to lineup:

-------------------------Neuer---------------------------

Lahm------Mertesacker-------Westermann--------Jansen

------------Khedira--------------Schweinstiger-----------

---Muller---------------Ozil-------------------Podolski---

------------------------Klose------------------------------

One might notice that Belgium's flanks are being defended, on both sides, by natural centre-backs. Toby Alderweireld and Thomas Vermaelen may have trouble getting adjusted to their surroundings, but luckily their tactical task is mainly on the defensive side. With Alderweireld manning the mercurial Podolski, and Vermaelen on the extremely talented and quick Muller, it can't be expected that either will bomb forward on attacks. Still, Vermaelen is an excellent header of the ball on both ends of the field, and Alderweireld has a pinpoint right-footed long ball, so neither will be completely useless on the attacking end of things. The most important thing for both players is to stay wide when Germany counters, otherwise both of Germany's wingers will have way too much space to operate.

Vincent Kompany and Daniel Van Buyten will have to deal with Miroslav Klose, the cunning Bayern striker. While not the most talented forward, Klose can score with ease when given proper service. I believe Kompany, the faster of the two defenders, will man-mark Klose more often, though the aerial strength of Van Buyten will come in handy, since Klose can easily score with his head. Still, with the defensively-strong Alderweireld and Vermaelen marking Podolski and Muller, Georges Leekens must be hoping that the number of quality balls served to Klose will be kept to a minimum.

In the midfield, Leekens seems likely to give Timmy Simons the surprising start alongside Belgium's pitbull, Jan Vertonghen. Again, both have played centre-back for the majority of their careers. I assume both to keep an eye on Mesut Ozil, the German's number 10, but the faster and grittier Vertonghen will probably be the one to man-mark him on most occasions. If they can throw Ozil off his game, Germany may have some problem with creating chances. I also expect both of them to help out on their respective flank when either Jansen or Lahm move forward. Neither has much of an offensive game (besides Vertonghen's long range left-footed shot) so expect them to remain behind the German midfield for most of their time on the pitch.

On the attacking side of things, Marouane Fellaini and Moussa Dembele will try to keep the pair of Schweinstiger and Khedira occupied. Strong with the ball at his feet and quite adept at moving around the pitch, Dembele will probably marked by the more defensive Sami Khedira. It's hard to predict the outcome of such a match-up because though Khedira is very skilled at winning the ball back, Dembele has embarrassed players better with his movements on the pitch with the ball. Belgium may have a chance at winning this battle if they can get the ball to Dembele's feet. He simply doesn't have the ability to defeat Khedira in the air. Two of the world's best box-to-box midfielders in Schweinstiger and Fellaini will face off against each other in what will likely be the most fascinating match-up of the day. Technically gifted and very fast, Schweinstiger is a complete footballer, who can defend as well as he can attack. Fellaini's advantage lies on the aerial side. Tall and rugged, he steps up his game when facing a excellent opponent. Fellaini also happens to have a great deal of stamina and combined with his long strides it sometimes appears he is everywhere on the pitch at once. I have a hard time predicting which player will come out on top (Schweinstiger is obviously more accomplished), though I do expect Fellaini to play more defensively than Schweinstiger (but he will be crucial on the Belgian counterattacks).

Finally we come to Belgium's front men (or should I say front boys). Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku in particular will be in for a tough day. Realistically, I can't see either getting too much in way of service. If they want luck, they will likely have to force it out for themselves. According to the media, Eden Hazard will show up on either flank to support Lukaku and in all honesty, this could a masterstroke by Leekens. Both Marcel Jansen and Philipp Lahm play as wing-backs. If Germany commit either fullbacks forward at any time (which seems likely), Hazard could get behind either of them and he will have acres to space either to cross or run at the German central defense. That said, for at least some of the time, Hazard will likely have to help contain runs by either fullbacks, with help from Dembele and the Belgian midfield. Luckily, Hazard is surprisingly good at defending due to his tenacious nature and quick, coordinated feet. Romelu Lukaku will have a tough task on his hands, trying to battle Westermann and Mertesacker for any spare ball that makes it his way. Out of form for Anderlecht, Lukaku will probably struggle, but if he does get a chance, he needs to convert it, because he probably won't see too many on the day. The best way for Lukaku to get involved in the game would be to move around and draw the defenders out of position. This would leave them vulnerable to a quick Belgian counter, and because Lukaku has great pace and finishing ability, a goal may be created in such a fashion.

It's not easy to prognosticate the result of this game because I'm not sure how the Belgian players will play under these daunting conditions, but I suspect due to the defensive nature of the Rode Duivels, there won't be too many goals on either side. I do think Germany will get a goal sometime in the game and a resulting overreaction by the Belgian players to this will lead to another. Therefore I'm going to predict a 0-2 scoreline. I really hope I'm wrong.

Enjoy the match (it's at Friday, 8:45 p.m. Brussels time, so get your popcorn ready)

Belgian Selection for the German Qualifier

Earlier today, Georges Leekens released his selection for the qualifying matches against Germany and Turkey. Here are the names:

Goalkeeper: Logan Bailly (Borussia Monchengladbach/GER), Jean-Francois Gillet (Bari/ITA), Silvio Proto (Anderlecht).

Defenders: Toby Alderweireld (Ajax/NED), Laurent Ciman (Standard Liege), Olivier Deschacht (Anderlecht), Guillaume Gillet (Anderlecht), Vincent Kompany (Manchester City/ENG), Nicolas Lombaerts (Zenit/RUS), Daniel Van Buyten (Bayern Munich/GER), Jelle Van Damme (Wolverhampton/ENG), Thomas Vermaelen (Arsenal/ENG).

Midfielders: Kevin De Bruyne (RC Genk), Mehdi Carcela (Standard Liege), Steven Defour (Standard Liege), Marouane Fellaini (Everton/ENG), Jonathan Legear (Anderlecht), Timmy Simons (Nuremberg/GER), Jan Vertonghen (Ajax/NED), Axel Witsel (Standard Liege).

Forwards: Christian Benteke (Standard Liege), Eden Hazard (Lille/FRA), Romelu Lukaku (Anderlecht), Kevin Mirallas (Olympiakos/GRE), Jelle Vossen (RC Genk)

This marks the triumphant return of Timmy Simons to the national team, after being ignominiously dropped by Dick Advocaat. Leekens said he added Simons to the squad for his experience, which makes sense considering how young the rest of the team is. Van Buyten is back from injury, though question marks abound about the fitness of Lombaerts, Legear and Van Damme.

Conspicuous by his absence is Dries Mertens, FC Utrecht's creative midfielder. Leekens has stated that he hasn't called upon Mertens because of the abundance of attacking flank players, though one wonders why De Bruyne is being chosen ahead of the more experienced and proven Mertens (De Bruyne seems to have more potential to be fair and has being playing extremely well with a resurgent KRC Genk).

Right-back remains a problem with the defensively poor Guillaume Gillet looking to battle Laurent Ciman and possibly Toby Aldeweireld for the chance to defend Bastian Schweinsteiger (Vincent Kompany has been mentioned as a possibility there as well, but he was pretty poor as a right-back against Estonia a few years back).

Finally, Jelle Vossen, the current topscorer of the Belgian competition has been called up. Technically very good, Vossen has very nice skill set for the domestic level, but I'm not sure if it will translate to the international game. He'll try to wrest control of the central foward role from Romelu Lukaku, who started to look his normal self after he scored a slightly lucky goal against Partizan Belgrade and Christian Benteke, the young Standard-man (who apparently can score a difficult goal in match against Real Madrid, yet against Sint-Truiden squanders four great chances).

I'll preview the individual games in greater detail, with emphasis on the specific opponents closer to the match dates (Germany is on September 3rd and Turkey is four days later on the 7th). The excitement is palpable!

p.s. Belgium has a new jersey, made by Swiss company Burrda. While it's nowhere near as nice as their previous kit (Nike-produced), it looks kind of like the Belgium jerseys of the 90s and 80s. Let's hope the results follow.

Finland vs Belgium: Recap and Player Ratings

Oh man that was bad.
If I wasn't a rabid fan of the Rode Duivels, I'd have stopped watching after half-time. A low-intensity, poorly contested match, Belgium went down meekly to an average Finland 1-0. The only goal of the game resulted from a big deflection off of Vincent Kompany in the first half. It was quite similar to the goal Belgium conceded against Bulgaria in their last match: a counter attack on the right flank was cut back to the striker just inside the Belgian 16. The Finn struck the ball against Kompany and this left Logan Bailly flat-footed. There really isn't much to discuss in terms of noticeable events so on to the ratings.

Logan Bailly, 4: Very slow to react to the deflection and way too many nervy moments, even though Finland rarely threatened. Very disappointing and I'm pretty sure he won't be lining up against Germany in 3 weeks time.

Guillaume Gillet, 3: He was likely the worst player on the field today, but since we have no other rightbacks, there was no alternative. He got beat on the defensive end way too often and he left much too much room behind him. On the attacking end, he added little besides a couple of wayward volleys.

Vincent Kompany, 5: Too casual in the first half and didn't look his quality self today. He did give a nice ball to Benteke for Belgium's best chance in the game.

Thomas Vermaelen, 6: An okay outing. Never looked too troubled by Finland's attack and by the end of the game he was Belgium's most attacking player with a lot of forays into the opposing half. That does seem like a role more suited to full back than a centre back though. You can see where I'm going with this.

Nicholas Lombaerts, 4: Never looked comfortable at left back. He was reluctant to go forward and when defending he stayed too close to the middle, giving the Finnish wingers too much space. Subbed at the half.

Jan Vertonghen, 5: Pretty invisible (which isn't too bad for a defensive midfielder). Had a rocket of a shot saved at the end of the first half.

Axel Witsel, 3: Everything he tried, just didn't work. No lack of effort, but that doesn't win football matches. He seemed like he was unfamiliar with his teammates and his position.

Jelle Van Damme, 4: At one point in the first half he was playing as a forward. Not really his position. Didn't do much of anything really. Don't count on him starting against Germany.

Kevin De Bruyne, 6: Had some nice crosses, but he just didn't receive the ball enough from his teammates. Still, it was a promising debut and a lone bright spot for Belgium.

Eden Hazard, 6: Best player on the field for Belgium, but that isn't saying much. He kept the ball in his possesion for more than needed and his crosses weren't great. But his attacking threat was the most noticeable of the entire team.

Christian Benteke, 4: His poor rating is partly due the atrocious service provided by midfield. But he wasn't great either, with poor touches and bad positioning. May need a couple of years to mature before being ready as an international.

Normally I'd give the subs a rating, but they didn't really add anything to the team. Pocognoli, a true left back, was better than the misplaced Lombaerts, but it had little effect on the game. The second half was a little better in terms of defending the counter, but that was more likely a result of the change in formation from a 4-3-3 to a 4-4-2. Georges Leekens has a lot to figure out in the coming weeks, because this was just not good enough from any standpoint.

On a positive note, Belgium's under-21 team beat the French in an important qualifier, 1-0, so well done to them.

Starting XI against Finland

Today, Georges Leekens revealed the starting eleven that will lineup in Finland tomorrow:

--------------------------Bailly------------------------------

Gillet--------Kompany-----------Vermaelen------Lombaerts

------------------------Vertonghen----------------------------

-------------Witsel------------------Van Damme------------

-----De Bruyne---------------------------------Hazard---------

---------------------------Benteke------------------------------



The biggest surprise is in the midfield, where Steven Defour will be left on the bench in favour of Jelle Van Damme. Without Defour, I'm slightly worried there won't be enough creativity with just those three. Vertonghen is pretty limited on the attack, besides the fact he has a powerful left-footed shot. Van Damme and Witsel are pretty similar box-to-box players who defend better than they attack. They both can infiltrate into the opponent's 16 and score, but they aren't wizards with the ball at their feet,though Witsel is better than Van Damme in that respect.

I'm slightly surprised that Leekens chose Vermaelen at centre back and Lombaerts at left back (I thought it would be flipped), but it probably doesn't make too much of a difference.

The inclusion of Kevin De Bruyne in the XI is to be expected since Jonathan Legear is out injured. He had a very nice game against Gent the other day and some in Belgium are beginning to say his talent is even greater than that of Defour (I'd argue they are different players with regards to their playing style so the comparisons are useless).

It's interesting to note that the three starting attackers are all still under 20 years of age. That bodes well for the future, but not so much for the present. Thus I'm going to be pessimistic and say that Belgium loses tomorrow 2-0. But hopefully I'm wrong (I usually am anyways).

Belgium Squad Changes

A couple of updates on the team being sent to Finland. Firstly, Kevin Mirallas, Jonathan Legear and Thomas Buffel are out with injuries. Striker Bjorn Vleminckx of NEC Nijmegen has been called up to replace Mirallas, though no replacements will be taken up into the selection for the other two absentees. Georges Leekens has also indicated to the Belgian media that Romelu Lukaku will not start against Finland.
This may cause the match to be less informative than hoped, in terms of learning what combinations work for the Germany match. Still, some players like Kevin De Bruyne and Laurent Ciman will want to grab their chance to impress Leekens and foreign scouts.
The game is at 6:00 pm Brussels time and as far as I can tell, it won't be televised on Flemish television, though it will be on RTBF 2. So let's get excited (or at least feign it).

Belgian Selection for the Finnish Friendly

The Selection

Goalkeepers:

Logan Bailly (Borussia Mönchengladbach/Ger)

Jean-François Gillet (Bari/Ita)

Silvio Proto (Anderlecht)

Defenders:

Laurent Ciman (Standard)

Olivier Deschacht (Anderlecht)

Guillaume Gillet (Anderlecht)

Vincent Kompany (Manchester City/Eng)

Sébastien Pocognoli (Standard)

Nicolas Lombaerts (Zenit Saint-Petersburg/Rus)

Jelle Van Damme (Wolverhampton/Eng)

Thomas Vermaelen (Arsenal/Eng)

Midfielders:

Thomas Buffel (KRC Genk)

Kevin De Bruyne (KRC Genk)

Steven Defour (Standard)

Eden Hazard (Lille/Fra)

Jonathan Legear (Anderlecht)

Christophe Lepoint (AA Gent)

Bernd Thijs (AA Gent)

Jan Vertonghen (Ajax/Neth)

Axel Witsel (Standard)

Attackers:

Romelu Lukaku (Anderlecht)

Kevin Mirallas (Olympiakos/Gri)

Christian Benteke (Standard)

A relatively safe selection from Leekens. The most promient names missing are Van Buyten (injured), Fellaini (not match fit yet), Dembele (looking for a new club). Mehdi Carcela and Alderweireld are playing with the under-21 squad in the important qualifier against France. One modest surprise to some is the inclusion of Romelu Lukaku, the 17 year-old Anderlecht striker who is just coming back from a knee injury. Now, Ariel Jacobs, Anderlecht's coach, likely isn't to be too pleased with this decision, but he did bring Lukaku back for an already decided match against The New Saints in European qualifiers.

There isn't too much to say about this selection, so on to the predicted formation for the game. As we know, Leekens likes to play a 4-3-3, so the XI should expected to be lined up in that fashion:

--------------------------------J-F-Gillet----------------------------------------

G-Gillet--------------Kompany--------------Vermaelen-----------------Deschacht

----------------------Defour------------------Vertonghen--------------------------

-----------------------------------Buffel------------------------------------------

-------Legear-----------------------------------------------------------Hazard

-------------------------------Lukaku/Benteke---------------------------------

That's how I believe Leekens will begin the match, though obviously things could change very rapidly. We may see Lukaku sub in late in the game, or he could just start and get subbed off at the half. I'm not too crazy about Buffel as the attacking midfield (might as well take Maarten Martens or Dries Mertens). But he'll probably just hold that role until Fellaini gets back for the Germany game. Check out this blog again after the game, because I'll give a recap with player ratings, if I can find a proper webstream of the match (it's on August 11th in Finland). It's Belgium's only preparation before the Germany match, so let's hope they make it good one.

Rode Duivel Player Profiles: Right Back

Ugh, it gets ugly here. Right back is almost without doubt the Rode Duivels' weakest position. It wasn't always like that; Eric Gerets and Eric Deflandre were ever present in the Belgian lineup and could always be counted on to give an excellent performance. Now though, there is a lack of a great, pure right back in Belgium. There's some interesting talents for sure, but none that would inspire any confidence for awhile. In a 4-3-3 (Leeken's preferred formation for Belgium), the fullbacks do not necessarily need to provide as much offense, since there are already two wingers on the flanks. So the preference (if I put myself in Georges Leekens' shoes) would be for defensive-minded fullbacks who do not need to reach the opponents' goal line, but provide the understaffed 3 man midfield with coverage.

The Contenders

Sepp De Roover: Here's a guy that's been pretty unlucky in terms of injuries. A few years ago, he was off to a blistering start with FC Groningen, defending well and hurting opposing teams with his banana-like crosses and freekicks. Then he got hurt, badly, forcing him to miss a season. Afterwards, after coming back from the injury, Advocaat called him up for Belgium and he performed very well against Hungary. And then he got injured again. Now with the ambitious Belgian league side Lokeren, De Roover is looking to get back in the national team picture. I think the right back positon is, right now, his to lose.

Guillaume Gillet: Ok, to be honest, I don't like Gillet at right back at all. He gets foward well enough and he has a nice right footed shot (especially on volleys), but he's constantly out of position, leaving Anderlecht open for a counter attack. In the Belgian league he doesn't get exposed too often since the pace is slower and his defensive partners, Juhasz and Mazuch can deal with the usually pedestrian threat offered by other Belgian teams. But it's in Europe where he looks out of his depth. I maintain that if Andelecht had a better right back than Gillet, they would have beaten Hamburg and probably made it to the finals of the Europa League. In his defense, when he played for Leekens at Gent, he was quite good at right back, so maybe he can recapture that form that bagged him his big transfer to Anderlecht.

Toby Alderweireld: Since I've already talked about him in the previous column, I'll make it brief. Alderweireld showed enough promise against Bulgaria to convince me he could be a good player at right back. But, in order to get better, he needs defend higher up the field and give the opposing winger little space. He needs also to be more willing to get past by half and support the midfield.

The Outsiders

Anthony Vanden Borre: Ah yes, the great, unfulfilled talent that is Vanden Borre. If his career had gone according to plan he'd be a world-class right back by now, storming up and down the right side for a big club. But then we learned that Football Manager 2005 isn't always right. After an awful display against Spain (funnily enough the year before he was man of the match against that same team), Vanden Borre hasn't been given a chance at redemption for Belgium. His poor judgement on and off the field has stunted his national team career, but the fact remains, he is fast, strong, technically gifted and not afraid to attack. He's been criticized for being extremely careless leading to defensive lapses, but to some extent, his loan spell with Portsmouth under Avram Grant put an end to that. If he has truly turned a corner and his mind is focused on football, he may warrant another selection.

Ritchie De Laet: De Laet is a reserve team player, so he really shouldn't be considered for a selection. But since he's a reserve (and the best one on his team judging by his award) at Manchester United, I'll cut him some slack. Because of his tremendous pace, De Laet could be a definite asset. He's defensively good, due to his experience at centre back as well. But tactically and offensively he comes up short. Lacking a good cross and big game experience, De Laet is a project and should only be considered once he's playing regular first team football (it needn't be as a starter if he's still at Man U).

Denis Odoi: He had a good season last year with STVV and was named the best left back (he's naturally a right back) in Belgium. He isn't brilliant in attack, but he's fast and is quite strong in the air. May become more prominent on Leeken's radar if he signs with a bigger team like Gent.

Laurent Ciman: Probably never given a fair chance at Club Brugge, Ciman is a rather slow but steady right back (though also comfortable at centre back) who plays for Standard Liege. With an incredibly hard right-footed shot and good aerial ability, Leeken's may be tempted to call him up, if he performs well with Liege.

Marnick Vermijl: An 18 year old Manchester United prospect, Vermijl is a natural right fullback. I must confess I don't know too much about him, but if Ferguson likes him, we may as well keep an eye on him for the future.

My Pick: Sepp De Roover, Anthony Vanden Borre as backup

Leekens' likely pick: Sepp De Roover, Toby Alderweireld as backup