And so it begins. The much anticipated start of Belgium's Euro 2012 qualifying campaign. After so much losing and misery, it's high time for some performance on the field. And what a way to kick it off; a young German team fresh off a brilliant World Cup run is Belgium's first opponent. Missing some key players due to injury (Michael Ballack, Jerome Boateng and Arne Friederich), Die Mannschaft is still a force to be reckoned with. Awaiting them is a Belgian side, likewise without several important players like Jonathan Legear, Jelle Van Damme, Nicholas Lombaerts and Mehdi Carcela, who opted to play for Morroco instead. The venue will be a sold-out Heysel Stadium in Brussels, seating 50,000 supporters.
From what I have been hearing from different sources, Belgium will lineup with a very defensive 4-3-3 formation. The following players are expected to start:
-------------------------------Bailly----------------------------
Alderweireld-------Van Buyten------Kompany-------Vermaelen
----------------Simons-----------------Vertonghen-------------
-------------------------------Fellaini---------------------------
----------Dembele--------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------Hazard----------
----------------------------Lukaku---------------------------
Germany is likely to play a 4-2-3-1, with particular emphasis on the attack. Here's how we can expect them to lineup:
-------------------------Neuer---------------------------
Lahm------Mertesacker-------Westermann--------Jansen
------------Khedira--------------Schweinstiger-----------
---Muller---------------Ozil-------------------Podolski---
------------------------Klose------------------------------
One might notice that Belgium's flanks are being defended, on both sides, by natural centre-backs. Toby Alderweireld and Thomas Vermaelen may have trouble getting adjusted to their surroundings, but luckily their tactical task is mainly on the defensive side. With Alderweireld manning the mercurial Podolski, and Vermaelen on the extremely talented and quick Muller, it can't be expected that either will bomb forward on attacks. Still, Vermaelen is an excellent header of the ball on both ends of the field, and Alderweireld has a pinpoint right-footed long ball, so neither will be completely useless on the attacking end of things. The most important thing for both players is to stay wide when Germany counters, otherwise both of Germany's wingers will have way too much space to operate.
Vincent Kompany and Daniel Van Buyten will have to deal with Miroslav Klose, the cunning Bayern striker. While not the most talented forward, Klose can score with ease when given proper service. I believe Kompany, the faster of the two defenders, will man-mark Klose more often, though the aerial strength of Van Buyten will come in handy, since Klose can easily score with his head. Still, with the defensively-strong Alderweireld and Vermaelen marking Podolski and Muller, Georges Leekens must be hoping that the number of quality balls served to Klose will be kept to a minimum.
In the midfield, Leekens seems likely to give Timmy Simons the surprising start alongside Belgium's pitbull, Jan Vertonghen. Again, both have played centre-back for the majority of their careers. I assume both to keep an eye on Mesut Ozil, the German's number 10, but the faster and grittier Vertonghen will probably be the one to man-mark him on most occasions. If they can throw Ozil off his game, Germany may have some problem with creating chances. I also expect both of them to help out on their respective flank when either Jansen or Lahm move forward. Neither has much of an offensive game (besides Vertonghen's long range left-footed shot) so expect them to remain behind the German midfield for most of their time on the pitch.
On the attacking side of things, Marouane Fellaini and Moussa Dembele will try to keep the pair of Schweinstiger and Khedira occupied. Strong with the ball at his feet and quite adept at moving around the pitch, Dembele will probably marked by the more defensive Sami Khedira. It's hard to predict the outcome of such a match-up because though Khedira is very skilled at winning the ball back, Dembele has embarrassed players better with his movements on the pitch with the ball. Belgium may have a chance at winning this battle if they can get the ball to Dembele's feet. He simply doesn't have the ability to defeat Khedira in the air. Two of the world's best box-to-box midfielders in Schweinstiger and Fellaini will face off against each other in what will likely be the most fascinating match-up of the day. Technically gifted and very fast, Schweinstiger is a complete footballer, who can defend as well as he can attack. Fellaini's advantage lies on the aerial side. Tall and rugged, he steps up his game when facing a excellent opponent. Fellaini also happens to have a great deal of stamina and combined with his long strides it sometimes appears he is everywhere on the pitch at once. I have a hard time predicting which player will come out on top (Schweinstiger is obviously more accomplished), though I do expect Fellaini to play more defensively than Schweinstiger (but he will be crucial on the Belgian counterattacks).
Finally we come to Belgium's front men (or should I say front boys). Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku in particular will be in for a tough day. Realistically, I can't see either getting too much in way of service. If they want luck, they will likely have to force it out for themselves. According to the media, Eden Hazard will show up on either flank to support Lukaku and in all honesty, this could a masterstroke by Leekens. Both Marcel Jansen and Philipp Lahm play as wing-backs. If Germany commit either fullbacks forward at any time (which seems likely), Hazard could get behind either of them and he will have acres to space either to cross or run at the German central defense. That said, for at least some of the time, Hazard will likely have to help contain runs by either fullbacks, with help from Dembele and the Belgian midfield. Luckily, Hazard is surprisingly good at defending due to his tenacious nature and quick, coordinated feet. Romelu Lukaku will have a tough task on his hands, trying to battle Westermann and Mertesacker for any spare ball that makes it his way. Out of form for Anderlecht, Lukaku will probably struggle, but if he does get a chance, he needs to convert it, because he probably won't see too many on the day. The best way for Lukaku to get involved in the game would be to move around and draw the defenders out of position. This would leave them vulnerable to a quick Belgian counter, and because Lukaku has great pace and finishing ability, a goal may be created in such a fashion.
It's not easy to prognosticate the result of this game because I'm not sure how the Belgian players will play under these daunting conditions, but I suspect due to the defensive nature of the Rode Duivels, there won't be too many goals on either side. I do think Germany will get a goal sometime in the game and a resulting overreaction by the Belgian players to this will lead to another. Therefore I'm going to predict a 0-2 scoreline. I really hope I'm wrong.
Enjoy the match (it's at Friday, 8:45 p.m. Brussels time, so get your popcorn ready)
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