Austria-Belgium Euro Cup Qualifier Preview: Do or Die

On the 12th of October of last year, the Rode Duivels played one of their most memorable games in recent memory. A topsy-turvy 4-4 draw was played out in the Heizel Stadium, where a late Austrian goal snatched away 2 crucial points. In all fairness, that should have been the end of Belgium's qualifying campaign, but Turkey inexplicably only managed to Azerbaijan. With that result, Belgium remains in striking distance from the coveted 2nd place in the group. But to have any chance of it, a victory is needed in Vienna this coming Friday.

The injury bug has decimated the Belgian squad with two vital players missing in Marouane Fellaini and Thomas Vermaelen. Both Nicholas Lombaerts and Bjorn Vleminckx are looking doubtful for this match, which is a shame, since both these players have been having outstanding seasons in Russia and Holland respectively. And Jonathan Legear, the man who tormented Austria in his first cap, will also be absent. That leaves Georges Leekens with some headaches. While Vermaelen has excellent cover in Vincent Kompany and Jan Vertonghen, there is no one on this squad who can do what Fellaini does. The only one who can possibly measure up is the versatile Axel Witsel, but he lacks Fellaini's ability to break-up opposing passes. If I know Leekens (well, going on his previous starting XIs), here's how I think Belgium will start the match:

----------------------------------------Proto---------------------------------------

Vanden Borre--------------Kompany------------Van Buyten-----------Vertonghen

-----------------------Defour-------------------------Simons----------------------

----------------------------------------Witsel--------------------------------------

-------------Hazard------------------------------------------------Chadli----------

---------------------------------------Lukaku-------------------------------------

That's just guess of course, but I have a feeling Proto will start due to his good form in Belgium. Antony Vanden Borre will likely beat out Toby Alderweireld for the right-back spot because in the last match, Arnautovic simply dominated the Ajax centre-back (even Leekens acknowledged it). While Vanden Borre has been inactive for awhile, he's likely the best option, especially when supported by his friend Kompany (though one could make the argument that Denis Odoi of Sint-Truiden is much more deserving of a selection). I understand most Belgium fans won't be thrilled to see Van Buyten back, but he's starting for Bayern Munich again (not saying much since Breno and Badstuber have been horrendous), and his aerial dominance will likely come in handy against the physically imposing Austrians. While I'm not a massive fan of Vertonghen playing left-back, he'll likely win out over Sebastien Pocognoli due to form, and his defensive ability. Unfortunately, Leekens didn't select Bart Buysse, who is starting at the left-back position for FC Twente. As well, the revelation of the season in the Jupiler League, Derick Katuku Tshimanga, a speedy wing-back, has just come back from injury, so unfortunately he was not considered for selection.

It's pretty much a given that Timmy Simons and Steven Defour will start the game against Austria. Simons has been having a good season with Nuremburg and it's well known that Leekens values his experience. Steven Defour's return from injury coincided with Standard Liege's and Axel Witsel's resurgence. His vision, tenacity and footballing intelligence make him an ideal central midfielder; Leekens will surely not overlook him. I expect Axel Witsel to fill a versatile, box-to-box role (something he did very well in the latest friendly against Finland), playing just ahead of Defour. That being said, it's well known that Leeken's admires the physical strength of Jelle Van Damme. Thus, it may be possible that the Standard trio of Van Damme, Witsel and Defour lineup in the midfield alongside Simons (Witsel on the right, Van Damme on the left). In this scenario, Leekens would be banking on a match where both flanks are well guarded, giving Austria little to work with. The shortcomings would be the obvious lack of midfield and wing creativity.

On the attacking side of things, the picture gets cloudy. In short, Belgium has a lot of good attacking players, but few good goal scorers. I expect Lukaku to play because he's looked very good in the last two friendlies (as an aside, I find that Lukaku plays much too rigidly with Anderlecht, but with Belgium, he drifts more to the flanks, giving him more freedom to operate and create). Obviously, Eden Hazard should be in the lineup (either as a winger, or with a free role), but we all know Leekens doesn't particularly like him. Still, it's hard to overlook the best player in Ligue 1. The last attacker, if Leekens opts for a three-man attack, is hard to predict since Moussa Dembele, Dries Mertens, Kevin Mirallas, and Nacer Chadli all can stake a reasonable claim to the position. Dembele and Mirallas are better second strikers than they are wingers. And Dries Mertens may be a little too similar to Hazard. So Chadli will likely win out over those three. But who the hell knows, Leekens may just decide to go with the Genk duo Jelle Vossen and Marvin Ogunjimi because of their chemistry (like he did in the first game against Austria).

All of this is speculation, but what I do know is that come Friday, 2,000 Belgian fans will be present in the Ernst Happel Stadium ready to cheer on les Diables Rouges. I think their long journey will have a happy ending, with Belgium surprising Austria to win 1-3. Let's hope I'm right.